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BMIs commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMIs independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sectors total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.

Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.

Central to BMIs analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMIs unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators . . . 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, June 2016 . . . 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) . . . . . 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 . 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 . . 8
SWOT ...... 9
Commercial Banking .... 9
Political . 11
Economic ........ 13
Operational Risk ....... 15
Industry Forecast .. 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 22
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ....... 22
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . . . . . 23
Market Overview ... 24
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook ... 24
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014 . 24
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 . . . . 25
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn) . . . 26
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 . . . . . 27
Economic Outlook ..... 28
Competitive Landscape . 35
Market Structure ....... 35
Table: Protagonists In Saudi Arabia's Commercial Banking Sector . . . . . 35
Table: Saudi Banks . 35
Table: Branches Of Foreign Banks . . . 36
Company Profile .... 37
Al-Rajhi Bank .. 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn) . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) . . . . 40
Arab National Bank ... 41
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 43
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn) . 43
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) . . . . 44
National Commercial Bank ... 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 47
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn) . 47
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) . . . . 48
Riyad Bank ...... 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 51
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn) . 51
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 51
Table: Key Ratios (%) . . . . 52
Samba Financial Group ....... 53
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 55
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn) . 55
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 55
Table: Key Ratios (%) . . . . 56
Regional Overview 57
Middle East Overview 57
Structural Slowdown In The GCC Amid Low Oil Prices 58
Macro And Political Challenges In The Levant .. 61
Islamic Banking ........ 62
New Markets Emerging ...... 63
Global Industry Overview ........ 65
Global Overview ....... 65
Regional Outlooks .... 66
Table: 50 Largest Banking Sectors By Assets - Change In Loans-To-GDP . . . . 71
Demographic Forecast .. 73
Demographic Outlook 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . . 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . . . 75
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . 76
Methodology . 78
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 78
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 80
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 82
Saudi Arabia Infrastructure Report
BMI View: We significantly downgraded our short-term outlook for the Saudi Arabian construction sector on the back of liquidity in the market severely drying up, following a reduction in government spending. Beyond 2016 the goals of Vision 2030 will be key to opening up the infrastructure market with the potential of private investment
Saudi Arabia Insurance Report
Saudi Arabia Insurance Report
Saudi Arabia: Operators Will Focus on Mobile Network Enhancements and Enterprises to Drive Growth
The telecommunications market in Saudi Arabia generated US$18.8bn in service revenue in 2016, an increase over 2015. Mobile data will emerge as the largest revenue-contributing segment by 2020. Over the next five years, operators can benefit from the opportunities existing in offering enterprise services, VoIP and mobile data. Operators are investi
Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report
BMI View: The combined value of Saudi Arabia's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets is the largest in the Middle East and Africa region. The Kingdom's National Transformation Program, a key part of Vision 2030, reinstates the government's commitment to improving healthcare provision in the country. Nonetheless, the rising burden of non
Saudi Arabia Petrochemicals Report
The Saudi government is targeting national petrochemicals output of 115mn tonnes in 2016, which represents a 46% increase since 2013. There are 26 petrochemicals projects under construction at a cost of USD15bn while another 42 are planned over the next five years at an estimated cost of USD46bn. However, there is the ongoing threat fro

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