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BMI View: The most prescient factor underpinning our growth forecasts for the freight sector and the wider economy is the current low oil price, which dominates government decision making. The low price has led to production being decreased, therefore we expect the Saudi economy will slow considerably throughout the short term at least. This will lead to certain infrastructure projects being shelved. However, growth in the rail freight sector is set to reach an impressive double-digit y-o-y increase in 2016 due to increased investment in this mode of late. Growth in the air and road freight modes will be far less spectacular in 2016 (1.3% and 0.9% respectively).

Key Updates And Forecasts
-Throughout the medium to longer term, we anticipate solid growth within the Saudi Arabian transport infrastructure sector, although some non-strategic projects may be scaled back to allow for a focus on delivering objectives under Vision 2030. Crucially for the future of the sector, the government is studying opening up all transport sectors to greater private sector participation, which would help offset a drawdown in government investment over the long-term.
-There are around USD124bn-worth of transport infrastructure projects in BMI's Infrastructure Key Projects Database for Saudi Arabia, USD51bn of which are currently under construction, underlining the potential growth in the freight sphere moving forward. This supports our forecast for strong growth over the short term in the transport sector. While the value of pre-construction phase projects still in preparatory stages has fallen slightly from 2015 to around USD60bn (some are ready to enter construction, while some still in the early planning stages), there remains significant project opportunities across all transport sub-sectors. That said, following a number of years of heavily stocking the project pipeline, we believe that beyond our 10-year forecast period there will be a slowdown in the number of major projects coming to market.
- Saudi Arabia's top trade partners over the short term will be China, Japan and the US (for exports), while key import partners will be China, the US and India (in that order).
BMI Industry View . 5
Table: Trade Overview (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) 6
Industry Forecast .. 9
Trade Forecast ...... 9
Table: Trade Overview (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . . . . 12
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . . . . 12
Table: Main Import Partners . . . 13
Table: Main Export Partners . . . 14
Road Freight Forecast ..... 16
Table: Road Freight (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . 20
Rail Freight Forecast ...... 21
Table: Rail Freight (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . . 24
Air Freight Forecast ....... 25
Table: Air Freight (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . . . 28
Shipping Forecast  29
Table: Major Ports Data (Saudi Arabia 2013-2020) . . . 32
Market Overview . 34
Company Profile .. 38
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia) ...... 38
Naqel Express ..... 42
Demographic Forecast .. 45
Demographic Outlook ..... 45
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 46
Table: Key Population Ratios (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . . 46
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . . . 47
Table: Population By Age Group (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) 47
Table: Population By Age Group % (Saudi Arabia 1990-2025) . . . 48
Methodology ........ 50
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 50
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 51
Sources . 53
Saudi Arabia Infrastructure Report
BMI View: We significantly downgraded our short-term outlook for the Saudi Arabian construction sector on the back of liquidity in the market severely drying up, following a reduction in government spending. Beyond 2016 the goals of Vision 2030 will be key to opening up the infrastructure market with the potential of private investment
Saudi Arabia Insurance Report
Saudi Arabia Insurance Report
Saudi Arabia: Operators Will Focus on Mobile Network Enhancements and Enterprises to Drive Growth
The telecommunications market in Saudi Arabia generated US$18.8bn in service revenue in 2016, an increase over 2015. Mobile data will emerge as the largest revenue-contributing segment by 2020. Over the next five years, operators can benefit from the opportunities existing in offering enterprise services, VoIP and mobile data. Operators are investi
Saudi Arabia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report
BMI View: The combined value of Saudi Arabia's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets is the largest in the Middle East and Africa region. The Kingdom's National Transformation Program, a key part of Vision 2030, reinstates the government's commitment to improving healthcare provision in the country. Nonetheless, the rising burden of non
Saudi Arabia Petrochemicals Report
The Saudi government is targeting national petrochemicals output of 115mn tonnes in 2016, which represents a 46% increase since 2013. There are 26 petrochemicals projects under construction at a cost of USD15bn while another 42 are planned over the next five years at an estimated cost of USD46bn. However, there is the ongoing threat fro

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